I’ve been thinking about the reported rightward shift among Black, Hispanic and Asian voters. The media make it sound like they are on a steep slope sliding toward MAGA. That seems unlikely. I suspect for particular segments of the population, it is more a matter of a slow shift from center-left to center-right.
Media also report that “they” are more socially conservative than progressive liberals presumed to be leading the Democratic Party. I suspect that could be partly true. If and when someone has recognized the value of liberal democracy working for ordinary people, they’re unlikely to drift far from the center. At the same time, if their life is consumed with what’s needed to get through the week or month while tending to the other demands of daily life, they’re more likely to be socially conservative. In other words they want to hold onto the stability of existing social standards because the pace and degree of social change they feel is being forced on them is too much to deal while the more important demands of daily life are being met. Political leaders who appear to push social change to the exclusion of the obvious problems affecting ordinary people will lose support. Politicians with con-man savvy will be posed to take advantage of that kind of discontent.
Among liberals are many who are passionate about cutting edge issues, especially when they are about redressing old injustices and desperate current needs. More power to them, but they are easily and angrily disappointed when ordinary people do not share their passion. Ordinary people, including fellow liberals, may agree about the importance of such matters but are burdened by too many issues of their own. They want to slow down, understand more, and take time deciding. Push too hard and there will be backlash.
I think that might be what’s going on in today’s world. It doesn’t seem to have much to do with race or ethnicity but more to do with the onslaught of rapid change. Back in the tea-party days, I ran into a very conservative friend and we had some time for private conversation. It turned out his tea-party anger was thin, just a way to make his voice heard. All he wanted, he said, was a nice, safe place for his kids too grow up in the middle class. Society, he felt, was changing so fast that he couldn’t understand why or what was happening and it all just felt threatening. His comment has stuck with me all these years because it was so plainly honest. I wonder if that conversation speaks to today’s so called shift to the right.
I’m reminded of another friend, very liberal, passionate about helping immigrants and speaking out against armed conflict everywhere. He goes to the boarder to volunteer, marches in protest, studies deeply, and encourages everyone he meets to join with him. It disappoints him when others tacitly agree but don’t share his passion. They are happy to encourage him. It’s his hurry up, let’s move, time is short, nothing else matters, that pushes center right and left people to respond with “Don’t push me!”
This, I suspect, may be what’s going on now. It has nothing to do with MAGA or its leaders. It’s just the ordinary way of ordinary people. It’s precisely what Martin Luther King, Jr. understood well and knew how to manage for the good of society. It’s also what Reagan’s people understood well and knew how to manage for the good of the wealthy and powerful. Who understands it well today?